Serhiy Marchenko, photo from Facebook
Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergiy Marchenko predicts that the war in Ukraine will continue into 2025. According to him, Ukraine needs an additional $12 to $15 billion in aid from its Western partners.
Marchenko’s forecast, voiced in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, is based on joint estimates by Ukraine and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He reminded that when preparing the current program with the IMF, one of the key parameters was that the active phase of the war would last until the middle of 2024, but this forecast did not materialize.
“Now we are constantly talking with our partners that we need additional financial assurance because the war will continue in 2025 and we need to have a buffer», — the minister said, estimating the additional needs for 2025 at $12-15 billion.
According to Marchenko, these estimates are fully in line with the discussions between the Ministry of Finance and the IMF.
“They also potentially see this as an additional need beyond what is currently envisaged in the program», — the minister said.
At the same time, Marchenko believes that by raising taxes, Ukraine should also send a signal to its partners.
“We are showing that we are ready for the most difficult decisions, that we are also making our contribution. We come to our partners and say: here is a deficit of 500 billion hryvnias and here is a solution to cover it. But we also expect you to give us sufficient financial assurances for 2025 so that we can finance the budget», — Marchenko explained.
Currently, according to him, the partners’ assurances under the IMF program are not enough for the government to submit a balanced budget for the next year to the parliament.