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The operation in the Kursk region allowed the Ukrainian Armed Forces to seize the initiative on the battlefield. It also enabled them to counter the Russian initiative across the entire theatre of operations. This marked the first time such a shift occurred since November 2023.
This assessment was provided by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
«The Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region forced the Kremlin and the Russian military command to react. They redeployed forces and equipment to the sector where Ukrainian troops launched attacks.»
Previously, the advantage held by Russia allowed it to determine the place, time, scale, and requirements for combat operations in Ukraine. Kyiv was left to allocate material and manpower for defensive operations in response.
Currently, the advances in the Kursk region are compelling the Kremlin to reconsider whether to treat the international border with Ukraine as a frontline.
«Since the autumn of 2022, the Russians have regarded the border as an «inactive sleeper front line,» and previous attacks by Russian volunteers on the Russian border had not convinced Moscow to redeploy forces there.»
According to analysts, further maneuvers in the Belovsk district of the Kursk region indicate that Russian forces along the border are currently ill-prepared to respond to additional incursions.
It is possible that the Russians will now conclude that they need to commit more manpower and equipment. They need to prevent future Ukrainian incursions across the border, thereby deterring larger-scale incursions in the long run.
«The current Ukrainian incursion poses significant threats to Russian military operations in Ukraine and the stability of the Putin regime, necessitating a response.»
Earlier, analysts at the US Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia might send some units operating in the occupied territories of southern and eastern Ukraine to the Kursk region. However, this redeployment may take some time.
Recently, Hromadske Radio discussed whether it would be advantageous for Ukraine to seize the Kursk nuclear power plant. Military expert Ivan Stupak believes that the Russians are focusing on securing the Kursk NPP in the city of Kurchatov. They have no more obvious and explicit goals for preventing Ukrainian advances in the Kursk region.
Earlier on Hromadske Radio, Pavlo Lakiychuk, Head of Security Programmes at the Centre for Global Studies «Strategy XXI,» suggested that, based on intelligence, the Ukrainian military is conducting a preemptive fire attack on the enemy grouping deployed to invade the Sumy region.
«I assume that, based on intelligence data, our troops are conducting a preemptive fire attack on the enemy force grouping deployed to invade in the Sumy direction. The outcome of these possible actions will determine whether we can diminish this offensive fervor», — Pavlo Lakiychuk said at the time.
Additionally, Russian propagandists were spreading false claims about Russia’s successes at the front. This was going on amid rumors that Ukrainian soldiers had «entered» the Kursk region. This was discussed by Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Centre for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine
«Russian military reporters and propagandists have been tasked with urgently shifting the focus of attention from the North to the fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. News about ‘tricolours on administrative buildings’ and major victories is being spread today. This is a traditional enemy information strategy», — said Andriy Kovalenko.