Anthony Blinken. Photo from open sources
On 11 September, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Kyiv. According to Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst and director of the Penta Centre for Political Studies, the likelihood of allowing Western missiles to strike deep into Russia has now increased.
Fesenko made this statement on Hromadske Radio.
At the same time, the analyst emphasized that the primary purpose of the U.S. and British officials’ visit was to participate in the Crimean Platform. Additionally, they aimed to meet Ukraine’s new Foreign Minister, Andriy Sybiga. However, the possibility of granting permission to use long-range Western weapons cannot be ruled out.
«There is a certain probability of such a decision, but I believe Blinken and Lammy’s visit to Kyiv was primarily to participate in the Crimean Platform. That’s the first reason. The second reason is for them to get to know Ukraine’s new Foreign Minister, Andriy Sybiga, in his new role. These are the two main goals of the visit. Still, it’s expected that there could be an announcement about Ukraine receiving permission to use certain long-range Western weapons against specific targets in Russia,» Fesenko explained.
Fesenko also suggested that any statement on this matter might not necessarily come from Blinken and Lammy in Kyiv. U.S. President Biden is meeting with the British Prime Minister, so it’s plausible the announcement could come from them.
«The question is, who will make the statement? Will it be Blinken and Lammy in Kyiv, or will it be President Biden and the British Prime Minister, who are also meeting? There are nuances here, so we’ll have to wait,» Fesenko added.
He further noted that if permission is granted, it may not apply to all long-range Western weapons, but rather specific missiles, such as the British Storm Shadows.
«Another important point: I don’t rule out that the permit might not cover all Western long-range weapons. It could, for example, allow the use of British missiles to strike Russian territory, like the Storm Shadow missiles, rather than American ATACMS. This scenario seems more likely at the moment,» Fesenko said.
According to Fesenko, permission to use U.S. ATACMS could follow later, possibly after Zelenskyy meets with Biden in the U.S.
«The use of ATACMS is likely to be addressed later, possibly when President Zelenskyy meets with Biden in the U.S. This would be the optimal and almost ideal scenario for resolving this issue. But given Biden’s cautious approach, we shouldn’t rush to conclusions. Let’s wait for the decision. Although, judging by various leaks, the likelihood of this happening has significantly increased,» Fesenko explained.
He also emphasized that the increased likelihood of receiving permission to strike deeper into Russia stems from the intensified efforts of Ukrainian diplomacy and top officials.
«The activity from Ukraine—the President’s recent visit to Ramstein, where he personally met with the U.S. Secretary of Defense and persuaded him—played a significant role. Ukrainian diplomacy and the government delegation’s work in the U.S. also contributed. This issue was one of the main topics discussed, alongside preparations for President Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S. All of this has been a key factor,» Fesenko said.
Finally, Fesenko noted that situational factors may have influenced the decision to grant permission. Specifically, the transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia could have violated informal agreements, prompting Western partners to respond.
«I believe situational factors played a role as well. For instance, I don’t rule out that the U.S. and U.K. decision could be linked to the delivery of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia. This violates previous informal agreements, escalating the conflict and increasing risks for Ukraine in the air war with Russia. Therefore, there should be a reciprocal gesture, such as strengthening Ukraine’s capability by allowing the use of long-range Western weapons to strike Russian territory,» Fesenko concluded.