Russians have been preparing to repel an attack on the Kursk region since late 2023

The Russian military leadership had anticipated the Ukrainian army’s intentions to launch an offensive in the Kursk region several months before the operation began. The Russians had been preparing for it. This is evidenced by documents from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSB, and the armed forces. The documents were seized by the Ukrainian military after they broke through into the Kursk region.

This was reported by the British newspaper The Guardian.

In their article, the journalists stated that they could not verify the authenticity of the documents. However, they noted that they contained characteristics typical of Russian official communication. The documents largely originate from the 488th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces. It was the first to face the Ukrainian troops’ assault.

The possibility of an offensive by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kursk region was first mentioned in late 2023 and early 2024. For instance, a report dated 4 January this year referred to the «possibility of a breakthrough at the state border» by Ukrainian armed forces. The Russian military was ordered to intensify training in preparation for a potential attack.

A report from 19 February spoke of the possibility of «a rapid breakthrough from the Sumy region deep into Russian territory, up to a depth of 80 km, to create a four-day ‘corridor’.» After that the Russians anticipated the arrival of the main units of the Ukrainian army in armored vehicles. By mid-June, the Russian military had been specifically warned about Ukrainian plans in the direction of the town of Sudzha. This offensive indeed occurred in August. The document also mentioned the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ plan to destroy all bridges across the Sejm River to cut off Russian supply lines. This also eventually took place.

At the same time, the documents revealed that all Russian units in the Kursk region were only 60-70% staffed on average. They were primarily consisting of poorly trained reservists. When the Ukrainian offensive began on 6 August, many Russian soldiers abandoned their positions. Within a week, Ukraine had taken full control of Sudzha.

“They fled without even evacuating or destroying their documents,” a Ukrainian soldier told The Guardian.

Kursk offensive

Earlier, Roman Pohorilyi, an analyst and co-founder of the DeepState project, told Hromadske Radio that the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region were encircling the Russian military. He noted that this information is constantly changing as some settlements frequently change hands.

Ukraine launched its offensive against the Kursk region on 6 August. According to the military, the first attempt was unsuccessful, but the second attempt was successful.

Ukraine officially confirmed the operation in the Kursk region on 12 August.