At present, the threat of a Russian landing near Odessa is not significant. The Armed Forces prepared for a possible landing and built lines of defense.
Alina Frolova, Deputy Chairwoman of the Board of the Center for Defense Strategies, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine (2019-2020), said on Hromadse Radio.
Attempts have already been made.
«But Russian personnel refused to land. There was an internal revolt on the ships. Probably because they understood that the coast was ready for them. There is now evidence that staff are being replaced in order to make this landing. But our military claims that this will not happen,» Alina Frolova explains.
But it is important to understand that in various ways, the Russian army will continue to try to take control of the Black Sea coast. On March 30, Vladislav Nazarov, officer of the South Operational Command, said that Russian ships were continuing to maneuver near Odesa. Meaning that there is a threat of landing Russian troops.
On March 22, a spokesman for the operational headquarters of the Odesa OVA reported that personnel of the Russian Marine Corps, which were preparing for the storming of Odesa, were destroyed by the Armed Forces near Mykolayiv and Mariupol.
According to Alina Frolova, Russian propaganda is now inflating the story of the Ukrainian’ mines in the Black Sea as a way to stage provocations, which it will later accuse Ukraine of.
«Russia can, for example, blow up civilian ships and then say that this is a danger created by Ukraine. Ukraine has already officially announced that no mines have taken place. And also that the Russian Federation for years blocked work on demining.
We suspect that the Russians will use old-fashioned Soviet or post-Soviet mines in Ukraine and Russia. Again, to be able to blame Ukraine,» she explains.
The expert emphasizes that it is very dangerous for civilian ships to leave Ukrainian ports through any of the corridors organized or guaranteed by Russia. After all, they may suffer from these Russian provocations.
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Both the military and intelligence of partner countries say that this can not be assessed as Russia’s withdrawal of troops. Rather, it is a regrouping. At the same time, for example, this is not happening in Chernihiv. In addition, the Russians do not believe that they should stop rocket fire.
«In just a few days you can see a steady trend. Even if Russia withdraws ground troops, this does not mean that they will not return. The Armed Forces will still watch their moves and will remain ready.
There are areas where the Ukrainian military pushed the Russians for tens of kilometers. Irpin was also taken back under our control. But we cannot say that Russian troops withdrew voluntarily. They are leaving because they were defeated here,” says Alina Frolova.
As the Russian army has failed to take Kyiv and other major cities, it is likely that they will withdraw these forces in an attempt to consolidate their positions in eastern and southern Ukraine.
«Thus, they dream of expanding the territory of the so-called ‘LPR’ and ‘DPR’, uniting this land with the occupied Crimea and cutting off Ukraine from the Black and Azov seas. This will probably be the main blow. In recent days, there has been a build-up and escalation,” explains Alina Frolova.
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Missile stockpiles in Russia, unfortunately, are very large.
«Russia claims a huge number of missiles. These figures are incomparable with the amount they have already used. But Russian statistics should not be trusted. The numbers may be inflated. There is no civilian control over the army and a non-transparent accounting system. Some of these missiles could be sold. Others could be low quality: they do not reach or detonate. But still, we can’t say that the missiles will run out in Russia in a few weeks,” the expert explains.
The use of chemical, biological, tactical nuclear weapons by Russia, the organization of disasters at the Chornobyl or Zaporozhye nuclear power plants — is quite realistic.
«There are no restraints on Putin. He uses all possible weapons in order to put pressure. Since Russia has declared war on the destruction of the Ukrainian nation, the Russians can use anything. Moreover, we have seen that Russia has used chemical weapons in Syria.
Russia also threatens to use such weapons to blackmail Ukraine and the world. He (Putin) is trying to bargain for negotiating power. If they see the need to raise the stakes, I see no obstacles to the use of such weapons. I would say that the risk is moderately high,» Alina Frolova said.
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We must not forget that on March 30 the General Staff reported: Russia is gathering forces near the Chornobyl NPP.
The day before, the General Staff warned that by withdrawing troops from the territory of Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts, the Russian army will regroup to strengthen in the eastern direction.
“The so-called ‘withdrawal’ is probably a rotation of individual units. It aims to mislead the military leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and create a misconception about the occupiers’ refusal to plan to encircle the city of Kyiv,» the Ukrainian military stressed.
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