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The National Bank of Ukraine has revised its inflation expectations for 2024

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Estimated Reading Time: 2 min

The National Bank of Ukraine has revised its expectations for the consumer price index in 2024, lowering the forecast from 9.8% to 8.6%. This update was announced during a briefing on monetary policy.

According to the NBU representative, inflation is projected to remain within the target range of 5% ± 1 pp in the coming months. However, there may be a slight acceleration from the middle of the year due to the diminishing effects of last year’s abundant harvests. Additional factors contributing to this include the recovery in consumer demand and the transfer of business costs to consumer prices, particularly influenced by persistent security risks and rising wages.

Despite these considerations, the state regulator expresses confidence that inflation will be under control, reaching 8.6% by the year’s end.

Looking ahead, the NBU anticipates a return to the target range in 2025, with inflation slowing to 5.8% by the end of the year and reaching the target of 5% in 2026. This positive trajectory is attributed to a reduction in assumed security risks, resulting in improved expectations and streamlined logistics and production processes. The NBU emphasizes that its interest rate and monetary policy measures will continue to play crucial roles in alleviating price pressure.

Earlier, economist and investment banker Sergiy Fursa stated on Hromadske Radio that inflation is not expected to spiral out of control in Ukraine.

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