At best, a million shells per year is only one-third of what Russia will use — Hetman

Periodically, the Ukrainian military leadership notes an ammunition shortage, despite claims from Western partners regarding substantial supplies. Oleksiy Hetman, a military expert and reserve major of the National Guard of Ukraine, discussed the ammunition situation and strategies for enhancing combat effectiveness on Hromadske Radio.

Hetman emphasized the need for advanced tactics rather than matching Russia in terms of weapons and personnel quantity. Chief of Defence Zaluzhnyi proposed leveraging technological systems, including domestically produced or partner-supplied missiles, UAVs, and small group strike tactics. Transitioning to non-contact combat and targeting the enemy from a distance is crucial, saving manpower and disrupting the enemy’s capabilities by destroying their warehouses and logistics routes.

Russia consistently outnumbers Ukraine 3-5 times in shells and weapons. When European or American officials announce plans to transfer a specific number of shells, it may create a misleading impression. Hetman noted that while EU leaders mention transferring half a million shells, it remains substantially fewer than Russia possesses, which significantly influences the perception of the situation.

European Commissioner Thierry Breton outlined plans to produce and transfer 1 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine in 2024. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated intentions to deliver about 520,000 rounds by March.

However, Hetman pointed out the discrepancy between announcements and actual numbers. Even if the EU reaches the goal of 1 million rounds, it falls short, as Russia produces 1.5-2 million missiles annually, potentially obtaining an additional 1 million from North Korea. The current rate of 1 million rounds annually is insufficient compared to Russia’s usage.

Recognizing the significance of drones in modern warfare, Hetman highlighted the need for more drones to strike the enemy without risking Ukrainian personnel. Competing based on the number of personnel or heavy equipment is not feasible against the Russian Federation. Emphasizing the quality of warfare through drone strikes, especially targeting the enemy’s rear, offers a strategic advantage. Increasing the production of attack drones, both domestically and through partnerships, is crucial for bleeding the enemy army dry and achieving victory.