The probability of a systemic blackout across the country is no more than 10 percent — Director of Energy Programmes at the Razumkov Centre

More than half of Ukraine’s power generation facilities are damaged, destroyed, or under occupation. This creates a deficit in the system, which is partially offset by electricity imports. However, the situation is not yet critical enough to pose a threat of a large-scale blackout.

Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programmes at the Razumkov Centre, shared his insights on Hromadske Radio.

«In my opinion, the likelihood of a blackout in Ukraine is higher compared to other European countries, but currently, I estimate the probability of such a systemic blackout across the country to be no more than 10%», — Omelchenko stated.

The Ukrainian power system functions as a unified entity. Thus, damage to facilities in one region does not necessarily lead to blackouts in another, as electricity is supplied from a shared grid.

«In essence, we have various types of generation – thermal, nuclear, wind, and hydroelectric power plants. They supply electricity to the high-voltage grid, which then distributes energy to the distribution grid and ultimately to consumers. Therefore, if, for instance, the Trypillia power plant is destroyed or the Dniproges power plant is damaged, it doesn’t imply an immediate loss of electricity in the entire area. It signifies a reduction in total power in the grid, which can be compensated by redirecting energy to the affected regions. Consequently, consumers in those areas may not perceive any impact until there’s a critical shortage in the Ukrainian energy system», — explained the director of energy programmes at the Razumkov Centre.

Regarding the restoration of the Ukrainian energy sector, Omelchenko stressed the importance of adopting a multifaceted approach. While some facilities can be rebuilt, others may be more economically viable to replace entirely with new ones. He emphasized the need to prioritize renewable energy sources.

«In my view, restoring everything, such as the Trypillia TPP or Dniproges, is impractical. It would take years, and we don’t have that luxury. Thus, we need to explore alternative energy supply options.

Increasing electricity imports is one solution as it’s relatively quick and doesn’t necessitate significant investments. Currently, we have a capacity of about 1700 MW of cross-border capacity, which can be increased by 50-70%. To achieve this, we must address the obstacles hindering commercial imports.

Additionally, we can promote decentralized generation, including wind and solar energy facilities. Perhaps we should also consider the construction of new biofuel facilities», — suggested Omelchenko.

He highlighted that a considerable portion of the damaged facilities can still be restored, particularly within the next few months.

«Of course, we must prioritize the restoration of facilities within our capabilities. Some estimates suggest that we can restore up to 50% of the damaged capacities by the autumn-winter period».