«Purely an attempt to intimidate» — nuclear weapons expert on Russia's «nuclear forces exercise»

On May 6, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced its intention to conduct an exercise, following Putin’s orders, «to enhance the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces to perform combat missions». Oleksandr Kochetkov, a political scientist and nuclear weapons expert, views this as yet another attempt by Russia to intimidate both Ukraine and the global community. He notes that similar exercises have been conducted previously during full-scale wars without significant consequences.

Speaking on Hromadske Radio, Kochetkov remarked:

«Such exercises typically occur regularly, about once a year or every two years. This latest instance represents another instance of baseless intimidation directed at Ukraine and the world. These exercises are purportedly in response to perceived threats, such as reports of nuclear weapons carriers in F-16s that might be in Ukraine by autumn, although this application of the fighter jet is highly implausible. The aim is to intimidate, undermine support for Ukraine, and «bargain» for favorable positions at future peace conferences, including the one in Switzerland»

The expert elaborated that tactical nuclear weapons typically have a yield of one kiloton or less, contrasting this with the 18-kiloton yield of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima and the 22-kiloton yield of the bomb dropped on Nagasaki.

Kochetkov explained that carriers capable of transporting a warhead weighing 50 kilograms could deliver tactical nuclear weapons, including ballistic or cruise missiles, Shaheds, or projectiles from large howitzers. He lamented that these weapons have been utilized in Ukraine for over two years, rendering the exercise purely an intimidation tactic.

«They may deploy strategic aircraft towards Ukraine, maneuver ships in the Caspian Sea, and launch cruise missiles, as they are hesitant to do so in the Black Sea. They may conduct movements near Ukraine on their own territory, transporting Iskanders. If they were genuinely serious, they would have already conducted exercises involving the movement of actual nuclear weapons to their carriers’ positions. However, they neither test nuclear weapons nor practice moving them», — he further commented

Kochetkov speculated that Russia might use dummy nuclear weapons to feign real movements, as actual removal of nuclear weapons from storage facilities would be swiftly detected by satellites, aerial reconnaissance, and agents, rendering it futile.