Ukrainians need NATO so that future generations don't have to constantly fight – expert
Host
Tatiana Troshchinskaya
Guests
Eugene Hlibovytskiy
The large-scale war waged by the Russian Federation on Ukraine united the citizens of Ukraine around the topic of joining NATO. According to the «Rating» sociological group, 86% of Ukrainians support Ukraine’s accession to the EU, 76% for joining NATO, and those against are only 5% and 9% respectively.
Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine will not become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance despite its open door policy. Addressing the leaders of the United Expeditionary Force, led by the United Kingdom, he said:
«We have heard for years about the alleged open door, but we have also heard that we should not enter it. And this is true, and it must be acknowledged. I am glad that our people are beginning to understand this and to rely on themselves and our partners who help us.»
The President stressed that now Ukraine now does claim to intensify Article 5 of the NATO Treaty and only asks to close the skies to prevent Russian air strikes.
Yevhen Hlibovytsky, an expert on long-term strategies and a member of the Nestor Expert Group, talked about NATO’s potential dividing line in Ukrainian society and how to separate frustration with global security from the security guarantees Ukraine really needs.
Yevhen Hlibovytskiy: Ukraine has not only been in the process of fulfilling the criteria necessary for NATO membership, but also in the political process. And the main claim is that the political process should move more dynamically.
Ukraine is not just a petitioner, but a country that adds and strengthens NATO, not weakens it or only seeks its protection. Like, for example, many NATO members are proud that they did not follow NATO’s recommendations to spend 2% of GDP on defense.
Therefore, the situation that developed yesterday was very interesting and revealing. At one point, a large number of Ukrainians became alarmed and are closely monitoring this process.
Three circumstances appeared
First. Despite the unification we see now, part of Ukrainian society fears that the government may betray them. And this is quite understandable, because this has consistently happened historically. There have been many betrayals before, so Ukrainians are very cautious.
The second question is that we, as a country, find ourselves in a rather difficult situation: we face an existential challenge. The war with Russia is a war for our subjectivity, for our right to exist, for our right to be ourselves. And in existential wars there are no compromises: you either exist or you don’t.
At the same time, we are not getting the most comprehensive, necessary and systematic protection we would like to receive – NATO membership. But we get the prospect of membership in another club, which is also important for the quality of our lives. This is the EU. But this does not solve existential issues.
Third. Much of this anxiety stems from the fact that not only enemies, but also our partners are playing a zero-sum game with Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy feels this very finely. This probably comes from his talent from his acting past, his ability to feel the audience now serve him well. Because he feels both the mood within Ukrainian society and what the emotional component of his perception in the West looks like.
And through this wave of attention, he can open doors that would otherwise be closed. But only to a certain extent. And this line is clearly drawn: we need NATO, but instead we are getting the prospect of EU membership. And the perspective is not entirely clear: are we talking about a year or two or three, are we talking about five or ten, are we talking about generations.
There comes a time when it is difficult to play several games with zero sum on different sides at the same time: both war exhausts and exhausts the fact that those partners who should be safe and reliable are partners who constantly have to be encouraged.
Why does Ukraine need NATO?
Yevhen Hlibovytskiy: We need NATO in order to stay alive, so that we can be sure that the war will not happen again. Ukraine needs NATO to know that future generations will not have to be educated as potential guerrillas who have to fight for their life. We need NATO for very good reasons.
We can give NATO a lot. We are a country that already has half a million people with experience of active hostilities. This is a rarity for the developed world. In practice, this means that Ukraine’s contribution to actualizing NATO’s capabilities is very large.
But each country within NATO calculates its own risks. Central European countries are more tense because they feel that the threat from Russia is more concrete and pronounced. Germany and France have a completely different view. They look at this situation through the prism of their interests, not through the prism of values.
The UK and the US are also now in roles different from those they held traditionally in previous generations.
- Therefore, it seems to me that the situation for Ukraine is not hopeless. There will be no quick fix where there could be one.
And this is very painful, because it means that thousands of Ukrainian men and women will die, and they could have not died. Cities will be destroyed, and this could have been prevented.
We are not talking about someone fighting for Ukraine. We are talking about Ukraine having the level of political support that, for example, Article 5 of the NATO Charter ensures.
Sociologically, everything changed in Ukraine after February 24. We probably can’t talk about the East-West anymore.
This war has very evidently clarified the optics of our entire society.
Listen to the entire program in the audio file.
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