Russia and Belarus are preparing joint military exercises «West-2024»: is there a danger for Ukraine?

Russia and Belarus have begun preparations for the joint strategic military exercise West-2024. These exercises are similar to West-2021, which enabled Russia to concentrate significant forces for its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The preparations were reported by the monitoring Telegram channel Belaruski Gayun. Yaroslav Chornohor, PhD in History and Director of the Russian and Belarusian Studies Programme at the Ukrainian Prism think tank, discussed the potential danger of West-2024 for Ukraine on Hromadske Radio.

«Such exercises are strategic in nature. Even by their name, it is clear they are aimed at the West. They could serve as a pretext for provocations against Western Europe and Ukraine», — Chornohor said.

When asked if Ukraine should expect any escalation after these exercises, he emphasized:

«It is important to remember that Russian troops are heavily engaged in fighting Ukraine. Therefore, this time, there may not be any serious actions. Perhaps they will be limited to a propaganda effect.»

Chornohor was also asked why Russia and Belarus decided to hold the West-2024 military exercises. He explained that these are planned exercises that have taken place before, even prior to the full-scale invasion. In general, as Chornohor noted, military exercises occur regularly.

«The fact that these are strategic exercises stems from their planning within the framework of their so-called union, the Union State», — he added.

Chornohor further elaborated that events like West-2024 are of particular interest because the scenarios used in these drills reflect the fears and perceived threats of Belarus and Russia. The standard duration of the Belarusian-Russian Zapad military exercise is two weeks. The first such exercises were held in 2017.

The most recent West exercise took place from September 10 to 15, 2021, across 14 training grounds in Belarus and Russia. The drills in Belarus involved 2,500 servicemen from the Russian Armed Forces.

From February 10 to 20, 2022, unscheduled exercises called «Allied Resolve 2022» were held in Belarus. Four days after they ended, Russia began its invasion of Ukraine.