In Ukraine, there are 9 births per 10 women — employee of the Institute of Demography

Currently, there are 9 births per 10 women in Ukraine. To prevent the country’s population from declining, there should be 20 births per 10 women.

This was stated by Svitlana Aksenova, a senior researcher at the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, on Hromadske Radio.

The expert highlighted that the prospects for the birth rate in Ukraine are extremely low. According to her, the birth rate will remain below the level necessary for normal population reproduction. It should be more than two children per woman.

At present, Aksenova says, experts cannot accurately calculate the current birth rate. However, it is definitely less than one child per woman. That means there are about 9 births per 10 women.

«We will never be able to reach a birth rate of two children per woman. It would be very positive if we could at least return to the level we had in 2012. Back then, the birth rate was one and a half children per woman, or 15 births per 10 women», — says the researcher from the Institute of Demography.

About the Institute of Demography’s Forecast for Ukraine

The Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine predicts that by 2051, Ukraine’s population will decline to 25.2 million people. The Cabinet of Ministers has approved a Strategy for the Demographic Development of the country until 2040. It is aimed at mitigating the effects of the demographic crisis.

Svitlana Aksenova explains that the Institute of Demography has various forecasts for the future demographic situation, based on different assumptions. However, a major challenge is the lack of reliable statistical data.

The expert states that there are no forecasts indicating that Ukraine will retain 40-45% of its population by 2051. The figure of 25.2 million was provided to illustrate the severity of the demographic problem, which cannot be resolved without substantial effort.

«This forecast of 25 million people assumes that a large portion of the population that fled the war will not return. It suggests that people will be very hesitant to come back», — Aksenova added.

As a reminder, the approved Strategy emphasizes the importance of supporting families, preserving reproductive health, improving working conditions, and increasing access to healthcare and social services to address the demographic challenges in Ukraine.

It is also noteworthy that, according to the US Central Intelligence Agency, Ukraine ranks first in the world for mortality and last in terms of birth rate.