Defence forces are able to stop Russian offensive west of Avdiivka — ISW

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are poised to establish new defensive lines near Avdiivka, marking a critical turning point in the Russian-Ukrainian war, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War.

The report highlights that on February 18, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced the capture of Avdiivka by units of the Russian Central Group of Troops, claiming an advance of 8.6 kilometers into Ukraine. Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations to seize additional territory in the Donetsk region.

Contrary to claims by Russian military bloggers that Ukrainian troops lack adequately prepared defensive positions west of Avdiivka, the Institute for the Study of War has not observed any video footage confirming disorderly withdrawals. The report notes the expectation of such videos if a massive withdrawal occurred, as is customary in Russian media practices.

While one Russian military blogger suggested a «unlikely» large-scale collapse of the Avdiivka front, stating that Ukrainian Armed Forces were withdrawing to pre-prepared defensive lines, the ISW report emphasizes that Russian forces, having suffered significant losses during the capture of Avdiivka, are likely to face well-prepared Ukrainian units at the culmination of their offensive.

Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi had announced the withdrawal of units from Avdiivka on the night of February 17, citing the need to avoid encirclement and protect the lives and health of soldiers. Tavria Operational and Strategic Grouping Commander, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, confirmed the withdrawal to previously prepared positions.

During the withdrawal, some soldiers were captured by Russia, and several Ukrainian defenders were taken into custody while defending the city.