Ukrainian drones have destroyed 10-15% of Russia's oil refining capacities — Director of Energy Programmes at Razumkov Centre

Ukraine has been employing drones to target Russian oil refinery facilities. Recently, reports surfaced claiming that the United States allegedly urged Ukraine to halt these attacks due to concerns about potential increases in global oil prices. Such statements, however, lack merit as Ukraine’s actions have minimal impact on Russia’s oil exports.

Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Centre, emphasized this point during an interview with Hromadske Radio.

«In reality, there will be no spike in oil prices because Ukraine is disrupting Russia’s oil refining infrastructure, which exports minimal amounts of gasoline. On the contrary, these strikes diminish refining capacity and increase the availability of «clean» oil for the international market. We observe this happening. Following systematic attacks on oil refineries, Russia has boosted its oil supplies. Furthermore, it’s noteworthy that the global oil market is more influenced by the actions of the Houthis in the Red Sea and the current reduction in oil production by the US, as certain field developments have been suspended.

This reflects the policy of the Democratic administration, which consistently seeks to curb oil production while promoting renewable energy sources. These factors bear no relation to drone strikes on the Russian oil refining complex. As Mr. Burns (CIA director) outlined in his Newsweek article last year, dating back to October 2022, Russia and the US had specific agreements regarding the terms of the conflict, including preventing Ukraine from striking Russian territory», — Omelchenko explained.

Assessing Russia’s financial losses from Ukrainian strikes is challenging but undoubtedly significant, particularly for specific regions.

«Ukrainian drones have demolished 10-15% of Russia’s oil refining capacity. These are substantial losses because certain refineries, like those in Nizhny Novgorod, are vital for regional budgets. While I cannot provide a precise estimate, I believe these losses already amount to billions of dollars», — remarked the Director of Energy Programs.

Despite facing numerous sanctions, Russia persists in seeking avenues to trade and export raw materials. Nevertheless, it is increasingly challenging for the aggressor nation to do so.

«We cannot assert that nothing is changing, the sanctions have indeed impacted Russia’s state budget revenues from oil and oil product exports. Russia attempts to circumvent these sanctions, but the task is becoming more arduous. Even Chinese and Turkish banks are reluctant to engage with the Russian banking system involved in oil payments. Additionally, India has significantly curtailed its consumption of Russian oil. While we would prefer stricter sanctions, we must recognize that neither the G7 nor the US seeks to dismantle the Russian economy, which could lead to unpredictable political and social ramifications. Their objective is to gradually weaken Russia to prevent its triumph», — Omelchenko concluded.