After Ukraine’s attack on the russian guard base in Kherson, the russians will not want to give the local population “nightmares” — analyst

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced a pause in hostilities three days ago. What is really happening at the front? How many ammunition warehouses has the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed with the help of Western weapons?

«Conflict Intelligence Team» analyst Kyrylo Mykhaylov explains.

Kyrylo Mykhaylov: There has been no large-scale offensive for three days, but shelling continues, and there are attempts to conduct reconnaissance by combat. Putin said that this pause concerns the «South» and «Center» groups, which were active in the Lysychansk region. The «West» and «East» groups in the Izyum direction should continue to fight. The Russians suffered losses in the Lysychan operation and in the battle for Donbas.

• I assume that they will need several weeks to restore combat capabilities.

The process of recovery of the Russian forces is negatively affected by Ukrainian strikes on objects behind the enemy’s rear, which can prolong the operational pause. Possible future directions are: Bakhmut-Soledar-Siversk or the Sloviansk line.

Russian Losses

Kyrylo Mykhaylov: Recently, 1 HIMARS battery became operational in the south, which is 4 installations. We saw debris from HIMARS missiles, which are very distinctive and do not look like Soviet missiles.

• This indicates that there will be the same “cotton” fireworks as there were in the Donbas. Every night.

We have seen in some reports from the Kherson region that Ukrainian offensives are being hindered by Russian artillery. If the Russians have problems with ammunition, the Ukrainian offensive will accelerate. We saw a photo of the residents of Kherson with rockets scattered by the “Smerch” and “Uragan” rocket salvo fire. They were used for the daily bombing of Mykolaiv and its province.

The Russians are trying to hide their losses. There is minimal video evidence from the scene, so it’s hard to say what exploded and to count it.

• According to information from the Kherson region that appeared today, it is clear that the Russian Guard base was attacked. This should improve life in the occupied territory because the Russians will not want to scare the local population. The “Rosgvardiya” are those who carry out illegal «arrests,» torture, and inspections.

As for the alleged «destruction» of the two HIMARS, it was not where the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation indicated. It was supposedly a village near the front. This cannot be assumed. The Ukrainians would not keep the installations within striking distance of Russian artillery. On the satellite images, there are only tanks for oil and oil products in the indicated territory and they don’t have a hit.

• Russian soldiers call the Department of Mass Communications of their Ministry of Defense the «Department of Mass Hallucinations.»

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